Inflation Giving Us the Bird
Gathering with family and friends for a Thanksgiving meal remains an important tradition in many households, but high food costs due to general inflation is a top concern for many this holiday season.
Illinois shoppers participating in the 37th annual American Farm Bureau Federation’s Thanksgiving Cost Survey reported a state-wide average price of $65.53, or $6.55 per person for a classic Thanksgiving meal for 10. This represents a 13 percent increase over the previous year’s state average of $58.15.
“Illinois farmers know the role inflation has played over the last year in driving food costs higher. Farmers have been experiencing higher input prices for over 18 months,” said Illinois Farm Bureau President Richard Guebert, Jr. “Increased fuel prices are a significant component of the distribution of food to consumers.”
Illinois’ Thanksgiving costs reflect prices slightly higher than the national average. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the national cost of a classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 came in at $64.05, or less than $6.50 per person. This reflects a $10.74 or 20 percent increase from last year’s average of $53.31.
Turkey, a staple main dish in many Thanksgiving meals, national average cost increased 21 percent to $28.96 over the last year. In total, 11 food items increased in average price and one (cranberries) decreased. The largest price increase is for cubed bread stuffing, up 69 percent to $3.88 for 14 ounces.
The results reflect several factors beyond general inflation. Shoppers across the country visited grocery stores in late October to check prices for Thanksgiving staples before most grocery store chains began featuring whole frozen turkeys at sharply lower prices.
According to USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data, the average per-pound feature price for whole frozen turkeys was $1.11 the week of Nov. 3-9 and 95 cents the week of Nov. 10-16, a decline of 14 percent in just one week; and the share of stores offering feature prices rose from 29 percent to 60 percent. This means consumers who have not yet purchased a turkey should be able to find one at a lower cost than the Farm Bureau average.
“General inflation slashing the purchasing power of consumers is a significant factor contributing to the increase in average cost of this year’s Thanksgiving dinner,” said AFBF Chief Economist Roger Cryan. General inflation has been running 7 percent to 9 percent in recent months, while the most recent Consumer Price Index report for food consumed at home reveals a 12 percent increase over the past year.
“Other contributing factors to the increased cost for the meal include supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine,” Cryan said. “The higher retail turkey cost at the grocery store can also be attributed to a slightly smaller flock this year, increased feed costs and lighter processing weights.”
Cryan added that the supply of whole turkeys available to consumers should be adequate this year, although there may be temporary, regional shortages in some states where avian influenza was detected earlier this year.
The shopping list for Farm Bureau’s informal survey includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, pumpkin pie filling, two frozen pie shells, whipped cream and whole milk, all in quantities sufficient to serve a family of 10 with plenty of leftovers.
In recognition of changes in Thanksgiving dinner traditions, the Farm Bureau price survey also includes ham, russet potatoes and frozen green beans, in an expanded holiday menu. Adding these foods to the classic Thanksgiving menu increased the overall cost by $17.25, to $81.30. This updated basket of foods also increased in price (up 18 percent) compared to 2021.